How probable is a meeting between Putin, Zelenskyy arranged by Trump?
The Potential of a Meeting Between Putin and ZelenskyyIntroduction: The Triangle of US, Russia, and Ukraine
The dynamics between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine have been complex since the end of World War II. The US has been a strong ally to Russia, particularly in the face of Ukraine's direct confrontations with Russia. However, recent speculation about an official meeting between Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, proposed by President Trump, raises questions about its feasibility.
Potential Benefits:
Such a meeting could be pivotal for several reasons:
1. Clarifying Russia's Position on Ukraine: The conflict in 2014-2015 set the stage for discussions between Russia and Ukraine, but a formal meeting might clarify Russian stance on Ukraine's ongoing situation post-war.
2. Economic Interests: There could be increased economic talks as countries seek to influence each other's interests beyond military engagement.
3. Dynamic Relationship: The meeting could help establish a new dynamic where both sides collaborate outside the military sphere, potentially fostering cooperation and reducing conflicts.
Potential Risks:
1. Russian Resistance: Russia is vocal about its position and may resist maintaining firm lines, especially after Trump's move to bring them under a new leadership.
2. Ukraine's Direct Confrontations: Past conflicts could make such a meeting tense, as Ukraine has faced direct confrontations with Russia in the past.
3. Internal Conflicts: Russian politicians' resistance could derail the meeting, though the frequency of internal conflict within Russia is uncertain.
Expert Opinions:
Michael Bociurkiw from the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center suggests that while a meeting might be more likely due to Trump's support, it carries significant risks. He highlights concerns about Russian opposition and potential internal issues within Russia.
Conclusion:
The likelihood of a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is high, driven by Trump's support, but internal tensions remain a concern. While the conflict may end in a new way, both countries could seek collaboration elsewhere to maintain influence. Thus, while there are significant risks, the potential for positive developments remains.
------
